E-DRUG: WB: by 2050, drug-resistant infections could cause global economic
damage on par with 2008 financial crisis
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[thanks to Lucas for spotting this; WB]
WBG News Release - By 2050, drug-resistant infections could cause global
economic damage on par with 2008 financial crisis
NEWS RELEASE
By 2050, drug-resistant infections could cause global economic damage on par
with 2008 financial crisis
New research from World Bank shows that antimicrobial resistance would
increase poverty and affect poorest countries the most
NEW YORK, September 19, 2016Drug-resistant infections have the potential to
cause a level of economic damage similar toand likely worse thanthat
caused by the 2008 financial crisis, according to a new report by the World
Bank Group entitled Drug Resistant Infections: A Threat to Our Economic
Future. The research shows that a high-case scenario of antimicrobial
resistance (AMR)where antibiotics and other antimicrobial dugs no longer
treat infections the way they are supposed tocould cause low-income
countries to lose more than 5% of their GDP and push up to 28 million
people, mostly in developing countries, into poverty by 2050. And unlike the
financial crisis of 2008, there would be no prospects for a cyclical
recovery in the medium term, as the costly impact of AMR would persist.
The scale and nature of this economic threat could wipe out hard-fought
development gains and take us away from our goals of ending extreme poverty
and boosting shared prosperity, said Jim Yong Kim, President of the World
Bank Group. The cost of inaction is unaffordableespecially for the poorest
countries. We must urgently change course to avert this potential crisis.
Key findings of the report are based on World Bank Group projections of the
world economy in 2017-2050. They include:
Impact on GDP: By 2050, annual global GDP would fall by 1.1% in
the low-impact AMR scenario and 3.8% in the high-impact AMR scenario.
Low-income countries would lose more every year leading up to 2050, with the
loss exceeding 5% of GDP in 2050 in the latter scenario.
Impact on global poverty: There would be a pronounced increase in
extreme poverty because of AMR. Of the additional 28.3 million people
falling into extreme poverty in 2050 in the high-impact AMR scenario, the
vast majority (26.2 million) would live in low-income countries. Currently,
the world is broadly on track to eliminate extreme poverty (at $1.90/day) by
2030, reaching close to the target of less than 3% of people living in
extreme poverty. AMR risks putting this target out of reach.
Impact on world trade: In 2050, the volume of global real exports
would shrink by 1.1% in the low-case scenario, and by 3.8% in the high-case
scenario.
Impact on healthcare costs: Global increases in healthcare costs
may range from $300 billion to more than $1 trillion per year by 2050.
Impact on livestock output: By 2050, the decline in global
livestock production could range from a low of 2.6% to a high of 7.5% per
year.
Drug-resistant infections, in both humans and animals, are on the rise
globally. If AMR spreads unchecked, many infectious diseases will again be
untreatable, reversing a century of progress in public health. The United
Nations has scheduled a day-long special session on AMR as part of the UN
General Assembly in New York this week, only the fourth time that health is
being highlighted in this way.
We now know thatunless addressed swiftly and seriously and on a sustained
basisthe growing global problem of antibiotic resistance will be disastrous
for human and animal health, food production and global economies. The fact
that, left unchecked, it would penalize the poor more than anyone, makes
clear why this needs to be addressed as a critical issue for development. As
heads of state come together at the UN General Assembly high-level meeting