UNFPA: "The State of World Population 1998"
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The following is provided as a courtesy of the International Develop-
ment Network at: http://www.idn.org/
Please note that as of 9:00 PM EST, UNFPA had not yet posted the report
to their web site.
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As World Population Nears 6 Billion, Record Numbers of Young and Old
Spell Need for Stronger Social Programmes
UNFPA releases "The State of World Population 1998: The New Genera-
tions" today
New York, 2 September 1998 (IDN) -- Global population growth is slow-
ing, thanks to successful family planning programmes. But because of
past high fertility, world population will continue to grow by over 80
million a year for at least the next decade. In mid-1999, the total
will pass 6 billion twice what it was in 1960. More young people than
ever are entering their childbearing years. At the same time, the num-
ber and proportion of people over 65 are increasing at an unprecedented
rate. The rapid growth of these young and old "new generations" is
challenging societies' ability to provide education and health care for
the young, and social, medical and financial support for the elderly.
The challenges - and opportunities - posed by the changing shape of the
global population are the focus of The State of World Population 1998
report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). Dr. Nafis Sadik,
UNFPA's Executive Director, will release the report today in London.
Other Fund officials will hold press conferences at sites around the
world.
Falling fertility and smaller families have prompted recent well-
publicised claims that the "population explosion" is over. On the con-
trary, the UNFPA report points out, world population will continue to
grow substantially for at least another 50 years. In 2050 it will be
between 7.7 and 11.2 billion, with 9.4 billion considered most likely.
Much of the growth will be due to "population momentum", the inevitable
result of high birth rates in the recent past. How much population will
grow beyond that will depend largely on action taken in the next 10
years enabling couples and individuals to exercise their right to re-
productive choice.
In some developing regions over the next two decades, young people will
swell the workforce compared to older and younger dependants. This will
create a temporary opportunity to build human capital and spur long-
term development, before dependency levels go up again as populations
age. To take advantage of this "demographic bonus", the report empha-
sises, countries need to invest in education, jobs and health services,
including reproductive health care.
Investments enabling women to choose when and whether to have children
will help to ensure their contribution to development. This will also
reduce abortion, reinforce the trend towards smaller and healthier
families and slower population growth, and ease the course to sustain-
able development. Young people in and out of school, the report states,
need more and better education and information about sexuality, includ-
ing how to avoid pregnancy and sexually transmitted diseases. Those who
are sexually active need sensitive counselling and access to family
planning services.
Declining fertility and mortality will produce a gradual demographic
shift towards an older population in all countries over the next few
decades. With smaller families, parents will increasingly have fewer
children to support them in old age. As people live longer and more in-
dependently, a variety of forms of support for the elderly - including
voluntary programmes as well as public systems - will become more im-
portant.
In response to rising numbers of older people, many industrialised
countries are considering reforms such as increasing the age of eligi-
bility for public-sector pension funds. Whatever their design, the
UNFPA report stresses, old-age security systems should guarantee a ba-
sic level of services to all, paying special attention to the needs of
the most vulnerable, including the poorest, women - who make up a ma-
jority of the elderly - and the "oldest old".
Ageing populations will strain medical systems in many developing coun-
tries which are still struggling to protect the health of younger age
groups. The burden of disease will shift to older ages over the next
several decades. Nevertheless, the report contends, health services
should not be reoriented towards treatment of diseases affecting older
people at the expense of preventive programmes and services for poorer
and less healthy people of all ages.
The rapid growth of adolescent and elderly populations demands a con-
siderable investment in: health care including reproductive health in-
formation and services; education and job training for the young; and
social and financial support for the elderly. Such investments have
enormous practical benefits. Better health, social and financial sup-
port services can take the place of large families in providing for old
age; encourage smaller, healthier, better-educated families; and enable
older people to remain healthy, independent and productive longer.
However, the report warns, declines in development assistance, economic
crises and reductions in social expenditures threaten the progress made
over the past few decades and cast a cloud over the future. Although
many developing countries have increased their spending for reproduc-
tive health and population programmes, donor support remains well below
the internationally agreed target for the year 2000.
A lack of funds to meet the global demand for contraception would re-
sult in millions of additional unintended or unwanted pregnancies and
abortions, tens of thousands of additional maternal deaths, and at
least a million more infant and child deaths each year during 1995-
2000.
The State of World Population 1998: The New Generations is available on
the UNFPA website at:
and from:
United Nations Publications,
DC-2, Room 853, New York, NY 10017, USA
($9.95 per copy plus $5 per order for shipping and handling).
--
Christopher L. Byrne
International Development Network
mailto:info@idn.org
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