Kaiser Daily HIV/AIDS Report - Mon, 24 Sep 2001
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* South African Actuaries Say 'Modest' Policy, Behavior Changes Could
Prevent More Than One Million HIV Infections Over 10 Years
* Verdict Delayed in Trial of Health Care Workers Accused of Deliber-
ately Infecting Libyan Children With HIV
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South African Actuaries Say 'Modest' Policy, Behavior Changes Could
Prevent More Than One Million HIV Infections Over 10 Years
The Actuarial Society of South Africa said on Friday that AIDS-
related causes accounted for 26% of deaths in South Africa in 2000
and could account for many more if the government does not promote
HIV treatment and prevention programs, Reuters reports. The latest
model for the society -- which calculates insurance risk and recom-
mends insurance premium levels -- estimated that 5.3 million South
Africans are HIV-positive and 236,000 have AIDS. Last year, the model
shows, AIDS-related causes were responsible for 139,000 deaths in the
country, and that figure could rise to five million over the next
decade unless there is a "widespread change in sexual behavior or
medical interventions." The society's estimates are the latest in a
series of conflicting reports over the number of AIDS-related deaths
in South Africa. South African President Thabo Mbeki has said that
external causes such as poverty and violence kill more South Africans
than AIDS (Reuters, 9/21). However, an unreleased report by the South
African Medical Research Council states that AIDS is the leading
cause of death in the country (Kaiser Daily HIV/AIDS Report, 9/17).
The actuarial model suggests that the government "phas[e] in" an-
tiretrovirals to prevent vertical transmission over the next five
years. The model also recommends that South Africans reduce their
number of sexual partners by 15% and double their use of condoms.
Such "modest" changes in behavior and government treatment policy
could reduce the number of HIV infections by 1.2 million over the
next decade, the society said. Such interventions would also cut by
more than 50% the number of infants born with the virus (Reuters,
9/21).
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Verdict Delayed in Trial of Health Care Workers Accused of Deliber-
ately Infecting Libyan Children With HIV
A Libyan court on Saturday postponed until Dec. 22 its ruling in the
trial of seven Bulgarian and Palestinian health care workers accused
of deliberately infecting 393 Libyan children with HIV-tainted blood,
Reuters reports (Reuters, 9/22). The defendants -- six Bulgarians and
one Palestinian -- served as doctors and nurses at a children's hos-
pital in Benghazi, Libya. They have been charged with "killing 393
children by deliberately infecting them with blood contaminated with"
HIV (Abu-Nasr, AP/Philadelphia Inquirer, 9/22). According to the in-
dictment, the medics deliberately infected children as part of a con-
spiracy by foreign intelligence agencies to "undermine Libyan secu-
rity and its role in the Arab world" (Kaiser Daily HIV/AIDS Report,
9/21). If convicted, the defendants could face the death penalty
(AP/Philadelphia Inquirer, 9/22). A verdict was expected to be handed
down on Saturday (Kaiser Daily HIV/AIDS Report, 9/21). However, Osman
Byzanti, the defendants' lawyer, said that the postponement is a
positive sign, because it gives the court more time to "consider all
the evidence" presented in the case. Byzanti added that the December
date might be postponed as well, stating, "The chances for verdicts
in December are more than 50%, but there may be a new delay on proce-
dural grounds" (Reuters, 9/22).
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a free service of The Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, by National
Journal Group Inc. c 2001 by National Journal Group Inc. and Kaiser
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