WHO Statement on Science and Nature papers on influenza
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Geneva - The World Health Organization (WHO) welcomes the pan-
demic influenza response modelling papers published in the jour-
nals Science and Nature this week. This is work done by expert
scientists using two different sets of assumptions. The models
provide additional information which will help WHO and public
health officials in our Member States to improve pandemic influ-
enza preparedness planning.
Both papers suggest that a combination of early, targeted use of
antiviral medicines and social distancing (measures such as can-
celling mass gatherings and closing schools) can stop a pan-
demic, or at least slow its spread. There would be significant
practical challenges to implementing such measures, but the
enormous social trauma and human suffering that an influenza
pandemic could inflict creates an obligation to thoroughly ex-
plore all proposals to limit this damage.
Several countries have already purchased stockpiles of antiviral
drugs and WHO has taken steps to establish an international
stockpile. National and international stockpiles of antiviral
drugs may be an essential component of comprehensive interna-
tional pandemic preparedness, that also includes vaccine devel-
opment and disease surveillance.
If we have a chance to reduce the scale of a pandemic with anti-
virals and other public health measures, the success of these
interventions will depend on effective disease surveillance and
early reporting in risk-prone countries. Before any stockpile
can be used effectively, both must be strengthened.