Africa, some sobering numbers (17)
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Dear All
I wondered whether my remarks would get any attention from Dr. King.
I must be careful. My father went to Leeds University and I know the
neighbourhood. And I do not entirely disagree with Dr. King.
In my own family there has been fertility change over the past three
generations. My father was one of 13 children with 6 surviving to
adulthood. My Mother was one of three and her mother was one of 9. I
am one of one. And I have 3 children.
I did not learn much about Africa from my studies at University. I
learned most of what I know by listening to Africans, especially old
Africans who have maintained their story telling tradition, and have
a lot to say if they have a chance. And I did a lot of my listening
accompanied by Africans, male and female who were able to clarify a
lot of the difficult areas around gender.
During one assignment we learned that most of the women wanted a lot
of children, something over ten based on a simple survey carried out
by a female colleague. But they also expected only 2 of their chil-
dren to survive to adulthood. My conclusion is that population dynam-
ics will change enormously in a couple of generations and as soon as
the totality of the socio-economic situation encourages it to.
Two excellent contraceptives are education and electricity. Fertility
will change as soon as there more education and as soon as the eco-
nomics of the community improve. The catch 22 of the present situa-
tion in Africa is that little in the development paradigm has a gen-
erational horizon.... the only thing going out generations is the
debt. In Africa education has improved immensely over the past 40
years..... but electricity and economics have not. But this can be
changed.
With regard to Romans going South, Dr. King almost has it right. Well
before the Romans, the Egyptians were going South and the African Em-
pires of a long time ago were as important as our own (NORTH) empires
of recent times. Some of the traditional cultures in Africa, as I un-
derstand it goes back millennia and modernized quite well until "mod-
ern" law was introduced from the NORTH in the last few centuries and
abruptly sidetracked local law.
With budget limitations, modern NORTH type legal systems are con-
strained and do not reach a lot of rural areas...... and law and or-
der is handled by traditional rules.... and quite well. Certainly a
more cost effective way of keeping society functioning than a legal
system that just works because of its government (or donor) budget.
I mentioned that I like to use numerical data. The only way to get
value from numerical data is when the data reflects reality and the
modelling is based on the real mechanisms (linkages, relationships,
etc.) that are operating. One of the problems today is that statisti-
cal methods are very powerful, but they sometimes dig up causality
that does not exist. Too many statisticians know numbers but do not
know reality. My modelling tends to be very simple..... trying to un-
derstand the key relationships that drive community success. I am
sorry if Dr. King thinks that I am part of the group that "can prove
anything if one uses numbers in the wrong way...".
In fact I am part of a group that is looking for development solu-
tions that will work with reality..... rather than someone with a
"solution" running around the world trying to find a problem that
fits.
My plea is that Africans start to look at their problems, and try to
articulate forward looking solutions. I am trying to think through a
framework for doing this with four elements: People / Process / Re-
sources / Information. And process has the following components: Plan
/ Organize / Implement / Measure / Feedback.
When I look at Africa in this framework I am very optimistic.... when
I listen to Dr. King...... nothing.
Incidentally Rwanda and Malawi are interesting cases in Africa......
start by understanding the development process (history) and deci-
sions that have been made that accelerated problem growth...... and
see what can happen with a future of "right" decisions. It is not all
bad.
Sincerely,
Peter Burgess
ATCnet in New York
Tel: +1-212-772-6918
Fax: +1-707-371-7805
mailto:peterb@iitc.safe-mail.net
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