Africa, some sobering numbers (8)
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Dear Dr King,
I never intended your indeed being a neo-Malthusian to be demeaning.
It's just that, as you know, you have many detractors.
Could it be that demography is presently very anti-Malthusian for a
good scientific reason?
Sorry, not being a population person, I do not know the privately re-
sponding Jack Caldwell, the most eminent demographer of Africa.
But is it indeed Malthus or Marx who is very busy in Rwanda and Ma-
lawi - or both?
Here is my answer to a question:
Is it possible for a community to outgrow the carrying capacity of
its ecosystem, its opportunities for migration, and the ability to
export enough? Yes or No?
Yes. The question is what else you want to know about my choice for
such a yes.
I see we agree on the terms of trade indeed needing improving - ur-
gently. (Anything else I mentioned in (6) needs improving in your
eyes?) I say with you: By themselves, fairer terms of trade are not
enough. But that is always the case.... single shot improvements do
not do the entire job.
Sorry for my apparent ignorance on Africa's population projections
for 2050 and 2150. Where exactly can I find these UN figures? I as-
sume you added starvation permitting, and not the UN. (Did you omit
AIDS on purpose...?)
Too bad the graph could not be posted.*
Let me reiterate that family planning within the realm of overall im-
proved reproductive health care for women in Africa remains important
to me. But I certainly would not put all my eggs in that basket (in a
veritable population control manner) only to 10, 20 yrs down the line
find that I neglected actively combating the unfair system that re-
generates high fertility rates of the poor, year-in-year-out. I have
been around too long to fall in that trap.
Very collegially,
Claudio Schuftan
mailto:aviva@netnam.vn
* From the moderator:
If Dr. King sends the graph separately we can place it on the AFRO-NETS
web site for downloading [DN Mod.]
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