Africa, some sobering numbers (4)
---------------------------------
One of the problems - a very important one - is rapid population
growth, particularly demographic entrapment.
Communities outgrowing the carrying capacity of their ecosystems,
with nowhere to go... (Rwanda, Malawi, etc.)
It is economic development not being able to 'cope up with' the rapid
economic growth that results for a total fertility of 6 children per
mother.
The end result of entrapment is the direst poverty, stunting, starva-
tion, and violence.
The "solution" to this problem is to taboo it altogether - the demog-
raphers, development economists and the UN agencies never discuss
demographic entrapment. They are therefore intellectually corrupt.
Why?
There are many reasons - 'many Demons'.
One of them is that if the South has to reduce its fertility, so as
to avoid starvation and violence we in the North have to reduce our
resource consumption (Demon 3) - which indeed we should!
And who is most worried by this?
The US!
It would therefore make good political sense for the US to keep demo-
graphic entrapment taboo, and demography corrupt (Demon 21).
This it is well able to do since it dominates demography and the UN
agencies.
All that is necessary (or at least much of it) is for senior US de-
mographers to 'set the policy' not to discuss entrapment and "politi-
cal correctness" (Demon 16) does much of the rest.
The crux of the problem is Figure 'X':
Figure 'X' (29-1) A MALTHUSIAN OUTLOOK FOR AFRICA
Although man evolved in Africa, its population grew only slowly until
'modernisation' and the influence of the West began seriously in
about 1900. Mortality went down, whereas fertility remained high, or
in some areas even increased. So Africa's population started rising
rapidly. In 1970 when its population was 364 million, its imports of
basic foods (maize, wheat, rice) started to exceed its exports, so
that its food balance became negative. {32} Africa's carrying capac-
ity - the population it can support comfortably - is therefore about
364 million, provided soil fertility does not fall further. However,
Africa's population is expected to be 2 billion in 2050, {136} de-
spite the effect of AIDS, and exceed its carrying capacity five and a
half times. In 2150 its population is expected to be 2.3 billion,
{158} and to exceed its carrying capacity more than six times. About
2 billion people will therefore need to emigrate, or to be fed on im-
ported food indefinitely. If this does not happen, there will be in-
creasing starvation and violence, and indeed there already is. It
seems likely therefore that most disentrapment will have to take
place in Africa by reduced fertility.
NOTE. Data on Africa's food balance are derived from FAO's database
on Africa as a whole.
So what is the solution?
It is for any African Government to ask any UN agency to investigate
Figure 'X' and report to the world.
That, of course is the very beginning...
For more information go to
http://www.leeds.ac.uk/demographic.disentrapment
Or ask a search engine (Google) to look for 'Disentrapment'
Order a copy of Primary Mother Care and Population from the disen-
trapment website ($7.50, $20) - published without profit or copy-
right.
Or look at it on the website - especially Chapters Two 'How many
Children?' and Chapter 29 'The population Demons'.
Do come back to me with comments!
With very best wishes to all in Africa - I was there 20 years.
Maurice King
mailto:M.H.King@leeds.ac.uk
--
To send a message to AFRO-NETS, write to: afro-nets@healthnet.org
To subscribe or unsubscribe, write to: majordomo@healthnet.org
in the body of the message type: subscribe afro-nets OR unsubscribe afro-nets
To contact a person, send a message to: afro-nets-help@healthnet.org
Information and archives: http://www.afronets.org